𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Jul 30, 2026 02:34
Jokes aside, let's assume for a moment yields keep drifting higher. It is intriguing to consider whether this really could just be a big bet that the stall speed for aggregate demand and asset prices lives a hair above current cycle highs on the 10Y yield.
If Warsh is right, it's a crazy gamble, but it would be a way to avoid directly pissing off the guy who just hired him and would be consistent with his desire for organic market signaling.
If he's wrong, he will have destroyed his credibility within half a year of getting hired as he catches up to the curve and will be compared to Arthur Burns.
I thought much of the presser today wobbled between being annoying and incoherent. I like some of his early changes to the Fed but he might be less clever as a policymaker than he thinks he is. Time will tell.
Just random thoughts as I watch baseball.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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