Phyrex|Jul 29, 2026 19:27
It's time for the summary of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting again. So, what can I say? I feel like since Waller took the stage, he's been sticking to very minimal forward guidance. Compared to Powell, the last two meetings have provided almost no clear information. Personally, I think the most important takeaway today is that Waller admitted the Fed won't surprise the market, nor should it deliver sudden shocks or surprises.
What this likely means is addressing the market's expectation that the Fed might raise rates today or in September, but there's been no indication of that. If there were a rate hike today, it would be a surprise from the Fed to the market. So, Waller's statement seems to be aimed at dispelling the uncertainty in the market.
To put it simply, the Fed's actions are predictable. If the Fed believes a rate hike is necessary, it will definitely give the market some signals rather than launching a surprise attack.
Additionally, compared to Powell, Waller seems to focus more on changes in real interest rates and nominal yields. He also believes that while it may seem like the Fed isn't doing much, the market has already done quite a lot. In other words, the market's judgments based on yields are something the Fed is willing to see. This part might suggest Waller leans slightly hawkish, but overall, I still think he's quite neutral.
Of course, this is just my personal opinion. As for future monetary policy adjustments, Waller, like Powell, hasn't provided any answers—which is something we could have predicted. I just realized that no one asked today about the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on inflation, nor about Trump's relationship with the Fed.
Overall, this press conference was pretty uneventful. Aside from clarifying that the Fed won't surprise the market, they emphasized unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target.
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