Bitcoin Market Review: What signals did on chain data give on the eve of FOMC? How to translate On the eve of the FOMC decision, the market was as quiet as before a storm. BTC has been grinding around 64000 all day, both long and short are pretending to be dead. But the on chain data and four hour energy have already given signals. Analysis of the strength and weakness of long and short positions: Short positions stall, long positions extend their lifespan The most obvious change in today's market is that both long and short positions have shrunk significantly, indicating that both sides have lost their fighting spirit and are waiting for the FOMC decision to be implemented. Previously, there was still volume of short selling during the four hour period, but now the short selling volume has shrunk to the floor. On the bullish side, the volume is not very strong, and the rebound is not sustainable. It was pushed twice before stopping, and the overall volume remains at the level of land volume. This is not about one side being strong or the other weak, it's about both sides resting without any incremental funds coming in or new selling pressure coming out. One sentence: The bears can't move, and the bulls can't move either. Both sides are waiting for the FOMC to lift the table. On chain data analysis of market entities' behavior one ⃣ ETF institutional fund flow: On the eve of the FOMC, institutional funds remained pessimistic overall, with Bitcoin spot ETF institutions continuing to have a net outflow of $49.75 million, indicating no signs of withdrawal. two ⃣ Exchange inflow: Selling orders have not come or gone. In the past 30 days, about 60000 BTC have flowed into Bitcoin exchanges, which is 24% lower than the average level of the past year and close to a multi-year low. The net flow is about -1300 BTC, close to the zero axis, indicating a basic balance between inflow and outflow. There has been no accumulation of chips on the exchange, nor has there been a large-scale withdrawal that has led to a tightening of liquidity. The signal is clear: there is no selling pressure, but there is also no buying pressure. three ⃣ Whales vs Retail Investors: Inconsistent Direction The net inflow of large investors into Binance plummeted by 44% from its peak of $7 billion in June to $3.9 billion, while the net inflow of individual investors decreased by 22% to $7.8 billion. The widening gap to 3.9 billion US dollars indicates that major investors withdrew BTC from the exchange before the FOMC and chose to wait and see; Retail investors are still maintaining inflows, but the intensity is also weakening. This deviation itself is a signal: smart money is waiting in the right direction, and retail investors are waiting for a rebound. A giant whale holding 10-10000 BTC The wallet has increased its net holdings of approximately 19696 BTC in the past 8 days, exceeding $1 billion at current prices. While giant whales quietly attract funds, individual investors are retreating. This kind of deviation often occurs in the C stage of the Weikov fundraising structure in history, where smart money takes over when retail investors panic. four ⃣ Order book hanging data There is an active takeover below 64K, with the main force making a 24-hour buy transaction of 738 million and a sell transaction of 468 million, resulting in a net pending order difference of 1.188 billion US dollars (positive). Secure the hanging order above 64.5K to form a throwing pressure wall. At present, there are no large orders for buying or selling, and both long and short positions are watching. Macro fundamentals and core information: FOMC is the biggest variable At 2:00 am Beijing time, the decision was made that the probability of CME raising interest rates is about 36%, and 104 economists are all betting on staying put, with great differences. If there is a negative vote, the signal is more crucial than the interest rate hike itself. Unexpected interest rate hikes may tighten financial conditions and lead to an increase in BTC volatility; The use of dovish language can alleviate market pressure. The final core judgment Both long and short positions in four hours are weak, and both sides are pretending to be dead waiting for FOMC. The on chain data tells a clear story: giant whales are raising funds (19696), miners are hoarding, exchange selling pressure has not come, but retail investors and ETF funds are hesitating. The long and short forces offset each other, so the price ground around 64K for a whole day. The direction needs to be pushed by FOMC. My friends, the best strategy now is to hold short and wait, let the FOMC land first, let the high volume candlestick confirm its direction first, and then take action.