Recently, everyone’s attention has been on AI and storage, with less focus on oil prices. But today’s rebound is worth digging into—WTI oil prices dipped to the 4-hour support level at 78 before bouncing back to a high of 83+. For assets primarily driven by war and geopolitical tensions, their upward movement tends to be smoother than their downward movement. Especially in the current situation of ‘neither war nor peace,’ the volatility is even more pronounced. Unlike before, this surge in oil prices is no longer purely driven by war logic. It has transitioned from the blockade of the two straits due to war to the idea of charging fees for passage through the straits. Judging by the current stance of various parties, the U.S. doesn’t seem to strongly oppose the fee itself. The point of contention has shifted to how much should be charged and how the fees should be distributed. If the two straits ultimately confirm the implementation of passage fees, then the composition of international oil prices will permanently include “security fees,” “protection fees,” and “toll fees.” This isn’t just about price increases—it represents the collapse of the existing world order, with impacts far beyond simple inflation. Charging fees implies that the global central government can no longer afford the cost of maintaining a free order. Freedom of navigation was once the flagship public good provided by the U.S., with allies implicitly paying through dollar recycling and alliance compliance. If passage fees are explicitly priced, the foundation of the implicit dollar-security contract will weaken. Ironically, “Better to spend millions on defense than a penny on tribute” is one of America’s founding myths—Jefferson fought the first overseas war for this very principle. If the U.S. still wants to maintain the existing world order, it will have to fight another war to completely suppress Iran. Netanyahu just had a meeting with Trump—“one hour, behind closed doors, no reporters, side entrance and exit.” After the meeting, Netanyahu declared it was “the best conversation with a U.S. president,” emphasizing “complete partnership.” The White House described it as “positive and productive.” All of this signals that the risk of war is rising again, and oil prices have immediately responded. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT—10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, enjoy dividend payouts.