FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%. A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.(*Walter Bloomberg)