看不懂的SOL|7月 29, 2026 08:35
In this round of US stock market decline, I think the most valuable thing is not predicting the bottom.
But to remind everyone of one thing:
Make money in a bull market, learn risk control in a pullback.
Many people start asking whenever they see a drop:
Is it the end?
Do you want to copy the bottom?
Can we add leverage now?
But those who have truly gone through several cycles know that surviving is more important than bottom fishing.
Because the market does not only reward brave people.
The market rewards those who can survive until the next opportunity.
Firstly, even good companies can be killed in terms of valuation.
Many people have a misconception:
As long as the company's fundamentals are good, the stock price should not fall.
This only applies to half of it.
Good fundamentals do not mean that prices will not rebound.
Excellent company does not always mean reasonable valuation.
The unchanged growth mainline does not mean that it will not be cashed out by funds in the short term.
Especially for popular sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and storage, the more they rise earlier, the faster the pullback will be once expectations loosen later.
It's not that the company suddenly deteriorated.
But the market is starting to recalculate:
Is this price still worth it?
Secondly, do not misuse leverage during a decline.
Leverage is like an amplifier when it rises, and a meat grinder when it falls.
The main stock has dropped by 10%, and a 2-fold ETF may drop by 20%.
If encountering continuous declines, amplified fluctuations, and path losses, the difficulty of recouping costs will be higher.
Many people don't die in the wrong direction.
But the direction is correct, but the position and leverage are wrong.
Especially when popular sectors experience a pullback, the most common psychological phenomenon is:
It's already fallen so much, add leverage and take a look
This is often the most dangerous time.
Thirdly, in the high-yield stage, one must learn to lock in profits.
The most common mistake in a bull market is to treat floating profits as permanent assets.
My account has gone up and I feel like I understand the market very well.
The sector has risen, and I feel that the main storyline will never end.
The stock has doubled, and I think there will be ten times more in the future.
But the market won't let you keep your money forever just because you've made money.
If the position is already heavy and the profit is already substantial, it is normal to set up take profit, cash in batches, and hedge some risks in advance.
Earning less is not shameful.
Not making a profit is better than losing.
Falling into a bag for safety is the true benefit.
Fourthly, during the panic phase, deal with leverage first, and then deal with viewpoints.
Many people love to do research when they are falling.
Look at financial reports, valuations, macroeconomics, and news.
But if you have high leverage, the first thing is not research, but risk reduction.
Because opinions can be gradually revised, liquidation will not wait for you to figure them out.
Especially now that the valuation of the Nasdaq is not cheap, although the AI mainline is still there, the market's tolerance for financial reports and guidance has significantly decreased.
At this stage, position management is more important than prediction.
Fifth, don't view short-term pullbacks as the end of the growth period.
If the AI mainline is still there, the profits of tech giants are still there, and the fundamentals of index constituent stocks are not bad, then many declines are more like a correction in valuation and sentiment.
But that doesn't mean you can be mindless.
The correct way is not to guess the lowest point, but to invest in batches, make fixed investments, and control positions to ensure that you can get the rest of the time.
Because the real market trend is often not completed in a day.
There will definitely be pullbacks, oscillations, doubts, and washouts in between.
Only those who can pass through are qualified to taste the trend that follows.
My understanding is simple:
In a bull market, don't mistake luck for ability.
In the callback, don't take panic as a judgment.
Falling is not scary.
What's scary is being full, leveraged, out of cash, and having to prove oneself right.
A bull market earns profits, but a pullback requires learning risk control.
Survive to have a chance to wait until the next new high.
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