So the question is, can we bid on the Pu500 and Nasdaq now? 1/First, let's say the conclusion: yes, but not all in. I can buy now, but I can't buy with my eyes closed like I did three years ago. High valuation is a fact, but high valuation does not mean doomsday, it only means that future returns will be compressed. 2/Buffett's benchmark for the S&P 500 is 236%, Schiller CAPE is 41 times, Buffett has sold net for 13 consecutive quarters, and cash reserves have reached a historic high. These data are all saying the same thing: it's not cheap now. But cheap and good investment are two different things. In 2000, the CAPE was 44 times, and the annualized return of the S&P 500 over the next ten years was indeed negative. But in 1996, when CAPE was 25 times higher, some people also called it expensive, but in the following three years, the S&P 500 rose by 80%. People who wait for a sharp decline often do not wait for opportunities, but for opportunities to step out. What does high valuation mean? This means that the annualized return is likely to decrease from 10% to 2% -5% or even lower in the next 10 years. But it doesn't necessarily mean a sharp drop. The market can oscillate at high levels for many years, digesting valuations over time rather than collapsing. So the question of 'can you buy' depends on how long you buy it. If you plan to hold for three years, the risk return ratio is indeed very poor now. If you plan to hold it for twenty years, the current valuation is just the noise at the beginning. 6/The historical data is clear: at any time, buying the S&P 500 and holding it for 20 years, the median annualized return remains above 7%. Even if bought at the highest point in 2000, it can double by 2020. What you're afraid of is not buying at a high point, but having no position at all. However, risks cannot be ignored either. CPI exceeds expectations again, Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, AI commercialization falls short of expectations, consumer recession, geopolitical escalation - all of these can cause the S&P 500 to fall by 20%, 30%, 40%. The question is, which of these can you predict? If you cannot predict, then your strategy cannot be based on 'waiting for a big drop'. The biggest problem with a big drop on August is not that you can't wait, but that you won't dare to buy when you wait. How many people shouted for a sharp drop in March 2020, but when it did, they actually cut their flesh. Human nature is like this, don't overestimate yourself. What should we do then? If you have a position, keep holding on, but don't go crazy about adding positions. Especially for those with excessive positions in the Nasdaq, consider moving a portion to the S&P 500, dividend ETFs, or short-term bonds to reduce portfolio volatility. This is not bearish, it's rebalancing. If you don't have any space, don't all in and don't go short. Fixed investment is the least sexy but the most correct strategy. Buy S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at a fixed amount every month for 10 to 15 months. Buy more when it falls, buy less when it rises. Anyway, what you bought is twenty years, not twenty days. As for the Nasdaq, one should be more cautious. The winner takes all in the technology industry, but the winners keep changing. Ten years ago, there were still Intel, Cisco, and Qualcomm in the top ten of the Nasdaq, but now they are all gone. You bet on Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla today, and in twenty years it may be another batch. The advantage of a Nasdaq 100 is that it will automatically change blood, but the disadvantage is that its fluctuations are much larger than those of the S&P 500. So my personal allocation strategy is: core position of 60% S&P 500, 20% Nasdaq 100, 20% cash or short-term bonds. Cash is not waiting for a big drop, it's waiting for the market to give it an opportunity. When there is a real opportunity, you have to have money to pick up chips. Finally, price determines the rate of return, but time determines whether you can get the rate of return. Good companies are bought when they are expensive, but their short-term returns are mediocre; Good companies are bought when they are cheap, and you may not even have a chance to buy them. Ordinary people should not always try to buy at the lowest point, but first ensure that they are always on the field. 14/Money in hand is not hot, but leaving completely is even more hot. Because you don't know when to come back. The best strategy is not timing, but always being present, always having bullets, and never panicking. Encouragement brothers!