Will Trump fully recognize Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz this time? Iran has rejected Oman's proposal regarding the strait, believing that the direction of the Strait of Hormuz entering the sea should be completely controlled by Iran, and the sea route should be partially controlled by Iran. Iran does not accept the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz at all. This actually indicates that the reason for the resurgence of conflicts in July was due to the previous issue at https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2076185072613597214? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about: The United States instigated merchant ships (otherwise merchant ships would not dare to act) to seek to open up a southern waterway that was not controlled by the Iranians, but was discovered by Iran. The Iranians firmly sought to use force to effectively control the strait, and then the United States retaliated. Last week, I also talked about that Iran's initiative will be stronger this time, not just looking at Trump TACO. This time, Trump must really accept that the Strait of Hormuz cannot return to the pre war state, and the situation is easing. Chairman Kan Tu mentioned that American psychiatrist Kubler Ross proposed an analytical framework in 1969 to describe emotional reactions after various major events (such as the death of a loved one, divorce, unemployment, major illness, etc.). This analytical framework involves five stages of psychological changes in the parties involved: 1) Denial 2) Anger (Anger) 3) Bargaining 4) Depression 5) Acceptance Now let's look at Trump's actions on Iran since the beginning of July: At the beginning of July, there was a stage of complete denial of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz; After Iran attacked a merchant ship, the US military launched a decisive strike, and the continuous attacks on Iran for more than ten days were clearly in the anger stage; Starting from the second half of last week, actively stopping the attack marked the beginning of the peach blossom bargaining phase; In the past two days, Pakistan and Oman have come forward separately, and Iran will not give up. Trump should start to be depressed. Why depression? 1) There has been no progress in military affairs Light bombing is actually ineffective, as demonstrated in March and April. Ground attack is more likely to be a quagmire, and one dare not take risks easily; 2) Economic risks are greater Compared to March, the current global oil inventory is very low, with less buffer space and less ability to withstand the impact of long-term supply shortages; 3) Politically, time cannot wait The election battle for the mid-term election is about to begin, and it will soon enter August. The further forward, Trump cannot ignore the political impact of the Iran war. In this situation, it is highly likely that he will reluctantly but helplessly accept Iran's factual control over the Strait of Hormuz, only saying what kind of winning rhetoric he will use to whitewash it. Just the time rhythm is not completely clear yet This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'