[Huatai Macro: Probability of Fed Rate Hike in July Slightly Above 50%] Jin10 Data, July 29 – Huatai Macro's research report states that after the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh took office, the financial market's pricing of the new chairman's policy orientation shifted from the previously dovish stance of rate cuts to a more hawkish short-term position. However, as the July FOMC meeting approaches, market expectations for the Fed's next policy move have become highly polarized. Following Warsh's abolition of forward guidance, market pricing has become more challenging, and the focus of the game between Warsh and the market is bound to shift from "listening to his words" to "watching his actions." Based on a comprehensive analysis of past Fed chair transitions, the current macroeconomic environment, and Warsh's goal of establishing credibility, we have moved forward our forecast for the timing of the Fed's rate hike. We predict that the probability of a rate hike in July is slightly above 50%, higher than the current market expectation of 40%. Under the baseline scenario, the probability of Warsh raising rates before September is close to 100%. From the perspective of the new chairman and market dynamics, the overall cost of a rate hike in July may be lower.