qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jul 28, 2026 16:57
Had a chat with friends tonight—honestly, it’s not the time to be overly pessimistic. The more the market drops, the more we should look for opportunities. Let me break it down: 1) Deleveraging isn’t completely done yet, but at least most of it has been cleared; 2) Capex and FCF won’t be persistent suppressors. Against the backdrop of accelerating AI demand and commercialization, capital expenditure and FCF are just valuation-killing drivers. So, once valuations are adjusted, the core logic remains unchanged; 3) Of course, macro risks haven’t been fully resolved—especially with the upcoming rate decision. You could wait until early Thursday morning for the final outcome: - If Walsh doesn’t hike rates this week, it could drive market stabilization and recovery in the near term; - If Walsh does hike rates, the market will quickly revise future rate expectations, risk assets will take another hit, but it could also accelerate the bottoming process (because afterward, the market might see Walsh’s rate hikes as a one-off, similar to Greenspan in ’97). As mentioned earlier here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2081932910735810691?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, many assets are already entering high-value zones. It’s actually a good time to buy the dip. Increasingly convinced that CSP deployment, open-source gross margin explosions, and shortened payback periods will be the main catalysts for the next wave of market movement. Detailed logic is discussed in the referenced tweet.
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