Way too many people are arguing what the Fed will do by explaining how they USED TO work. They don’t work that way anymore and now a big “family fight” at the Fed is underway. The repost below is a good read and needs to be understood. A 35% to 40% probably of a hike is justified. Sure they might raise rates this week, but there is going to be tension and lots of dissents. No hike this week and 50 might be on the table for September. —- Years of Trump bashing the Fed has changed them. Before everything revolved around the Chair and what they wanted. That is why Wall Street parsed every word and framed every decision around the Chair, their personality and what they believed. The other 11 voters did not matter and were expected to go along with the Chair. This is not the case anymore. The Fed is now like the Supreme Court, all independent voters and can out vote the Chair. And there is no more Forward Guidance (signaling what they are going to do.) this is why the probability of a hike tomorrow is 35% to 40%, the Chair could get outvoted and we have no “guidance” either way. —— All of these changes are positive, and should be applauded. The root of many of the Fed’s problems were centered in too much power vested to one person (causing terrible “groupthink”). Additionally, forward guidance that amounted to promises of future moves encouraged too much speculation and leverage among financial institutions as they perceived lower risks creating moral hazards (Fed bailouts for bad decisions.). These practices had to end. In the meantime many of the hot takes about the Fed here should be filed under “historical viewpoints” and not “current monetary policy.”(Jim Bianco)