Latest progress on the CLARITY bill: The voting window is closing. The passage of the CLARITY Act has a significant impact on the short-term price trend of Bitcoin, so I am closely monitoring it. 1. Current status: Text published, time window closing On July 22nd, Republican senators officially submitted the complete revised text of the CLARITY bill, which includes core provisions such as: (1) Explicitly prohibit the President, members of Congress, and federal judges from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their term of office; (2) Exemption for blockchain developers (3) Stable Coin Yield Rules (4) Bankruptcy Protection and Enforcement Enhancement Clause Trump has agreed to this clause. But Senate Majority Leader Thune has stated that the bill is highly likely to miss the vote before the August recess. Galaxy Research points out that the actual effective deadline is July 30th (Wednesday), not August 7th. The probability of passing through Polymarket is about 37-38%, and Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of passing from 50% to 30% in 2026. Based on this forecast data, there is a 70% probability that the CLARITY bill will not be voted through in August. 2. The bottleneck of the core issue: insufficient votes! The Republican Party has 53 seats and needs 60 votes to push the bill forward, requiring at least 7 Democratic supporters. On July 22, seven Democratic senators issued a joint statement opposing the current text, citing insufficient ethical standards, inadequate consumer protection, and unresolved issues of illegal finance. The two Democratic senators who previously supported the bill in the Banking Committee both signed opposition statements, stating that the current moral language is "very weak and the bill should be vetoed". The only marginal improvement: The National Police Brotherhood announced on July 24th the endorsement of a bill, eliminating one source of opposition but not enough to address the Democratic Party's vote gap. 3. The impact on the short-term price of BTC The core value of the bill is to enhance the regulatory clarity and institutional risk appetite of the overall cryptocurrency market, indirectly benefiting BTC. If the bill is shelved, it may suppress market sentiment, but BTC is less affected than other cryptocurrency assets. The bill has a greater impact on stocks such as ETH/SOL and Coinbase. 4. The final core judgment The possibility of the bill passing before the August recess is rapidly narrowing. The most likely scenario is to postpone until after the midterm elections in November, when changes in the political landscape will re determine the direction of the bill. The expected disappointment has been partially reflected in the price (66.9K → 64K), but if the bill is officially confirmed to be shelved, it may still suppress market sentiment in the short term, accelerating the decline of Bitcoin price to the bottom of 61500-62500. BTC's short position continues to hold, waiting for Bitcoin prices to further decline and bottom out.