Just as in the April–May period, I don't think Bitcoin short-term price action is particularly important right now. In my view, the market is once again using these extreme patterns to build confidence and conviction among retail investors, rather than signaling a genuine trend reversal. As I've mentioned before, Bitcoin is actually trading at a lower price than it was during April–May, and even the magnitude of the recent short-term rebounds has been smaller. Despite that, investor confidence and optimism are likely to become even stronger than they were back then. The reason is that several narratives are now overlapping at the same time the size of the correction, the length of the decline, technical patterns suggesting a potential bottom, and on-chain cycle models indicating that we're at the "knee" or even the "bottom" of the cycle. Against this backdrop, the market continues to produce short-term bullish signals and encouraging signs, reinforcing investors' confidence almost perfectly. As a result, retail investors are being encouraged to continue deploying capital with increasing conviction. Once this process is complete, I still believe the probability of a significant downside shock remains high. Even if Bitcoin falls below $60,000, I don't think the market will become truly fearful. Instead, many people will likely describe it as the best buying opportunity. That's because the cycle models continue to point in that direction. At the same time, investors who have already bought naturally want that interpretation to be correct, creating an additional layer of psychological reinforcement. I don't enjoy maintaining a bearish view for such a long period of time. However, based on my own framework, I still believe this is a period that calls for caution not a time to become aggressive.(mignolet)