What impact does the surge in international oil prices to around $100 have on financial markets and Bitcoin prices? Brent crude oil is once again approaching $100 per barrel, which is not only a set of energy data, but may also become an important variable in the global financial market in the coming weeks. The rise in oil prices often means an increase in transportation, manufacturing, and living costs, which may push up global inflation expectations again. The transmission chain of oil prices breaking through 100 US dollars is clear: Rising energy costs → Rising inflation expectations → Cooling expectations of interest rate cuts (or even the option of interest rate hikes returning) → Pressure on risk assets. The logic of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is being replaced by geopolitical headwinds, as US bond yields rise and the US dollar strengthens, leading to a collective downward shift in global capital market risk appetite. Risk assets such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin may all be under temporary pressure. Next, we need to focus on three signals: ① Can international oil prices remain stable at $100 per barrel; ② Is the US inflation data (CPI/PCE) resurging; ③ The latest statement from the Federal Reserve on the path of interest rate cuts. The oil price has remained above $100, which has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. The rebound high point is stuck around $66900, and the price has been adjusted downwards for three consecutive days. The macro logic has shifted from "inflation falling → interest rate cuts" to "geopolitical conflicts → oil price surges → inflation reigniting", and BTC's retreat from 66.9K to around 64K is precisely the market digesting this expectation. What is worrying is that the US Iran conflict is still intensifying with no signs of easing. The US military has launched airstrikes on targets within Iran for 13 consecutive nights, expanding the strike range from military facilities to civilian infrastructure such as ports, bridges, and nuclear power plants. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched strikes on multiple US military targets in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, including the destruction of three ammunition and equipment warehouses at the Udari US military base in Kuwait. Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal conveyed by Trump through the Iraqi Prime Minister. The spillover effects of conflicts are expanding. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen have announced a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, threatening the Strait of Mandeb in the Red Sea. The two major energy chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb, are under pressure at the same time, and Brent crude oil once exceeded $100 per barrel. It cannot be ruled out that crude oil prices will continue to rise in the future! In the short term, the pattern of blocked energy channels and high oil prices will continue, which will suppress inflation expectations and risk assets. BTC is likely to continue to fluctuate widely and fall to the bottom. I'm not considering going long for now, so I'll focus on going short. Bitcoin, BTC, crude oil, Brent crude oil, Federal Reserve, CPI, interest rate cut, cryptocurrency, macroeconomic investment