The recent fluctuations in the gold market provide some evidence of the Federal Reserve's potential Maradona style expectation management strategy. Gold is one of the most sensitive assets to real interest rates, which was fully demonstrated by Walsh when he first took over the Federal Reserve. His appointment quickly ignited the market's interest rate hike pricing, and the soaring expectation of real interest rates directly exerted a strong pressure on gold prices, which also led to a significant decline in gold prices Maradona's interest rate theory refers to the fact that in macro games, the market always pre prices what decision-makers expect to do, rather than reacting to facts that have already occurred. The source is that Maradona almost dribbled the ball in a straight line during a World Cup, but the English defender voluntarily gave up the defensive lane because he predicted he would change direction. The current macro environment has a certain sense of correlation with the measures taken by the Bank of England in 2014. The central bank frequently creates expectations of interest rate hikes through forward guidance, but has yet to take action, leading to extreme tearing of market signals Looking back at the current situation of the Federal Reserve, the motivation for this expectation management is equally clear. Objectively speaking, is it necessary to raise interest rates? have Geopolitics continues to push up crude oil prices, and the transmission pressure of oil prices to inflation objectively exists, and it takes time to repair production capacity after refineries are bombed. But politically, will Trump allow interest rate hikes? Almost impossible, his bottom line has always been an extreme preference for low interest rates Therefore, Maradona's strategy is a breakthrough path, using the expectation of interest rate hikes to suppress the rise of commodities and inflation, but in practice, he may ultimately compromise to political pressure and remain inactive. As long as through repeated testing and signal release, the market can digest the impact of inflation rebound in advance, and ultimately whether or not there is a real interest rate hike, the marginal destructive power on the market will be significantly weakened. The interest rate decision at the end of the month is now clear