Murphy
Murphy|Jul 24, 2026 08:36
Due to a lack of confidence and significant disagreements, weak rebounds are more common during a bear market. Some short-term holders without strong conviction will exit quickly, even for small profits. As a result, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has become the gold standard for gauging the psychology and behavior of this group. When >1, it indicates that short-term holders are collectively taking profits. The greater the deviation (above 1), the stronger the intent. If demand is insufficient at this time, the market will inevitably come under pressure. Therefore, STH-SOPR >1 often appears near the end of a rebound or at a local high. Looking at the current data, it has just barely crossed "1" (the middle black line), so the deviation isn’t significant. This puts us in a position where it could either "go a bit further" or "end here." Personally, I’m leaning toward the former, but this is just a probability, not a certainty. ~ Not financial advice, for reference only ~
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