ING says Brent could gain more than 12% this week as threats to Red Sea shipping raise the risk of further supply disruption. Brent, which had closed above $100/bbl, eased in early trade to $99.39/bbl (-1.3%); WTI fell 1.4% to $90.89/bbl. ING analysts say the key question is what price would force the Trump administration back to the negotiating table; if Brent approaches $120/bbl, pressure to seek de-escalation would rise materially. For Iran, ING notes the more immediate issue is how long it can absorb a sharp drop in oil revenue under a US blockade, not the absolute price level.(金十数据)