Haven’t talked in detail about Bitcoin ($BTC) for a while now. Currently, it’s still fluctuating within the bottom range since early February, between 585-82. The upper part is 67-82, and the lower part is 585-67. Right now, it’s moving within the lower part of the range. Even within this fluctuation, there are short-term swing opportunities, but all the action is happening here. Personally, I’ve been focusing on oil, so $BTC’s volatility hasn’t been much of a concern for me. Maybe some of you are still waiting for the four-year cycle—wondering if the second half of the year will bring new lows, or if $BTC will hit $50K or even $40K? In 2022, we had the Fed rate hikes, the Luna collapse, and the FTX meltdown—blow after blow to market sentiment. This year, what events do you think could have such a big emotional impact? Personally, I think there might be a small dip to the $5K range, but it won’t go too deep before a new trend starts (or maybe it won’t even dip at all). As for which scenario is more likely, it’s hard to say right now—we’ll have to take it step by step. The idea of “MSTR selling $BTC” has actually been gradually accepted by the market. For now, the only major factor I can think of is rate hikes, but there’s a lot of back-and-forth on this. This month’s FOMC meeting will most likely keep rates unchanged, but the key is how Powell frames his remarks. The main storyline to watch is when Trump will officially TACO. Everyone knows oil prices are already above $90, and my short positions are still floating at a loss. But high oil prices won’t last long, especially with the midterm elections coming up. Geopolitical risks → oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → rate hike expectations → U.S. stocks + $BTC under pressure (Geopolitical easing → oil prices drop → inflation decreases → rate hike expectations fade → rate cut expectations rise → risk markets rebound) That’s the logic. Of course, if there really is a rate hike in the second half of the year, that’s a whole different story. $BTC would drop further, and U.S. stocks wouldn’t look good either. Personally, I still lean toward rate hikes being unlikely, but there might be a small dip before we see how rate cut expectations play out and what happens to risk markets after the midterm elections. Right now, we’re in a wait-and-see phase for the macro narrative. DYOR.