Didn’t expect this time Iran and Trump to be so tough, neither side holding back at all. The current macro environment is escalating faster and bigger than expected, clearly unfavorable for risk assets. As of now: The US Dollar Index has risen to about 101.45, nearing a three-week high; The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.71%, and the 30-year yield surpassed 5.1%. Oil prices have surged past $100 again, with Middle East shipping risks and a new round of US tariffs jointly driving up inflation expectations. For $BTC, gold, and tech stocks, this means triple pressure from real interest rates, the dollar, and risk premiums. And it’s not even August yet, but we’re already seeing suppressed pullbacks. The most critical factors this month remain: the state of US-Iran relations and the direction of the Fed’s policy meeting on the 28th-29th.