SpaceX SPCX likely hasn’t formed a clear bottom in the short term yet. Even though it has dropped from $225 to $115, the current valuation is still approximately: 83x static price-to-sales ratio; 235x 2025 adjusted EBITDA. Over the next two weeks, the probability of further decline is still higher than a direct reversal. With the upcoming earnings report and a major unlocking period, here’s the calculation: On August 6, up to 911.5 million shares will become eligible for trading, which is equivalent to 1.42x the current free float. Even if only 10% of the unlocked shares are sold, that’s 91 million shares, roughly 14% of the current free float. Around this time, we might see a lot of trapped positions and selling pressure, which could make it easier to form a short-term bottom.