At the June 18 FOMC meeting, Walsh made his debut with a very hawkish stance. Many people said that because Walsh was hawkish, didn’t provide forward guidance, and with the U.S. issuing more debt, interest rates were bound to rise. Over the past couple of days, long-term bond yields have indeed gone up, and now people are saying, 'See, I was right.' But the issue is, in recent months, the most direct correlation with yields has still been oil prices: when oil prices drop, yields go down; when oil prices rise, yields go up. If previous analyses predicting rising interest rates didn’t mention oil prices as a factor, doesn’t that mean the logical framework behind those predictions might actually be flawed?