**[Opinion: NVIDIA to Benefit Short-Term from China's Open-Source AI Boom, Structural Risk Lies in Long-Term Compute Independence]** BlockBeats News, July 23 — Citrini analyst Jukan published an article countering the view that "China's open-source models are irrelevant to NVIDIA," arguing that the boom in China's open-source AI is effectively reinforcing NVIDIA's dominant position. Currently, China still uses NVIDIA GPUs to train models and releases versions optimized for NVIDIA hardware. As a result, models like DeepSeek V4 and Kimi K3 continue to rely on NVIDIA GPUs as the most advantageous platform for inference—no one uses TPUs or Trainium for running inference on these models. This protects NVIDIA's moat from two dimensions: 1. Maintaining its position as the optimal platform in the inference market. 2. Indirectly suppressing the motivation of hyperscale cloud providers to develop proprietary ASICs as alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs. At the same time, Neocloud providers relying on NVIDIA GPUs for inference operations also benefit from this trend, as the boom in China's open-source models provides them with a sustained source of compute demand. Jukan pointed out that the real structural risk lies in the long term. If China achieves true compute independence and no longer relies on NVIDIA, the consequences will extend far beyond losing the Chinese market itself. NVIDIA's dominant position will be significantly weakened, and the relative competitiveness of alternatives like TPUs and Trainium will be enhanced, posing a threat to the Neocloud ecosystem that NVIDIA views as a critical strategic asset. [Original Link]