Oil pushing $90. US-Iran less likely to make a deal now than at any prior stage of the war, given truce fallout and growing lack of trust. Suspect Trump has no motivation to either as long as oil < $100 prior to November. Once oil breaks $100 again (if before November), the inflationary/electionary pressures mount for action towards peace. Until then we are in a limbo where the 10 yr rates continue to climb and are now breaking above key levels that trigger some risk of action for us. Near term, rates above 4.6% is the biggest headwind to risk assets (equities, bitcoin). The market is pricing in sticky and higher oil prices on the back of ongoing volatility in the M.E. Peace talks will regardless be more challenging going forward as trust between counterparts has collapsed, and the only party incentivized to move quickly towards peace now is the US. Hope I am wrong and we see tensions reduce.(Charles Edwards)