[Grayscale: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Out If the Fed Stops Raising Rates] BlockBeats News, July 23 — Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, stated in an article that there are currently two main perspectives on when the Bitcoin bear market might end: one follows the 'four-year cycle,' and the other views Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors. The 'four-year cycle' perspective suggests that halving events remain the core driving factor of Bitcoin's price cycles. Historically, Bitcoin typically bottoms out about one year after the cycle peak and approximately 2.5 years after a halving event, with an average cumulative drawdown of around 80%. According to this pattern, Bitcoin could still experience further declines in this cycle and may form a bottom in September or October. The other perspective argues that Bitcoin's price will increasingly be influenced by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, similar to other major assets. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have often coincided with economic slowdowns or rising real interest rates, and the current downturn has similarly occurred amid heightened rate hike expectations and rising real interest rates. Pandl expressed a stronger alignment with the macro-driven perspective. If the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed out. [Original Link]