小龙先生|Jul 22, 2026 15:27
Expectations for the CLARITY Act passing—what if BTC just won’t drop?
First off, based on on-chain data analysis, $65,500 isn’t breaking down, and the key reason is two forces holding it up: ETF institutions are buying, and the CLARITY Act is providing support.
Direct support #1: The CLARITY Act clears the final hurdle.
Treasury Secretary Besant publicly stated that the CLARITY Act is already at the “1-yard line,” nearly complete. Trump has agreed to the key ethical provisions in the Act, and the Senate plans to push for a vote before the August recess.
Once passed, it will end years of enforcement-led regulatory models, potentially unlocking trillions of dollars in institutional capital. This isn’t just short-term sentiment—it’s a structural bullish factor, directly underpinning $65,500.
Direct support #2: ETFs see over $700M net inflows for 5 consecutive days.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for five straight trading days, totaling over $700M—the longest streak since May. BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day inflow of about $116M, signaling that market confidence is returning. The worst phase of $8.2B outflows in May-June is now behind us.
Direct support #3: Whales are accumulating near $65,000.
Wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have added approximately 11,000 BTC over the past week, indicating that big money is actively building positions in this range. Passive buying from short liquidations is also adding to the mix.
Direct support #4: Weak short volume. From $57,800 to now, take a look at the short volume fluctuation curve in the chart below—it’s been consistently declining, never spiking.
Core logic: Expectations for the CLARITY Act passing have reduced regulatory uncertainty, addressing the key pain point of institutions “not daring to enter the market.”
ETF net inflows validate that this logic is playing out. $65,500 isn’t breaking down because some are seeing longer-term certainty: if the Act passes, this price could be the low for a long time to come.
But risks remain: spot trading volume is only 62% of the annual average, and retail investors are still on the sidelines. If ETF inflows stop, $65,500 could still be tested again.
BTC price pullback—buy the dip. First target price: $67,500. Second target price: around $70,800. Don’t aim higher; volume, data, and capital don’t support it.
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