The predicted probability of Trump pardoning SBF on Polymarket drops below 1%

The probability of Trump pardoning SBF before July 31 on Polymarket has dropped to below 1%, with a trading volume of approximately $836000, and Polymarket has not yet opened any other maturity prediction markets. According to market rules, if Sam Bankman Fried receives President Trump's pardon, commutation, or suspension of execution before 11:59 on August 1, 2026, the market will settle with Yes; otherwise, it will settle with No. The US Senate resolution opposes granting amnesty to FTX founder SBF and states that SBF should not be granted amnesty or reduced sentence under any circumstances.