qinbafrank|7月 22, 2026 10:52
On July 22, Japanese and Korean stocks opened higher and fell lower, with foreign investors continuing to buy and retail investors continuing to surrender, but the safety cushion has decreased. At the end of yesterday's tweet, it was said that "there has been encouraging progress in deleveraging in Korean stocks, but there may be some fluctuations in sentiment and productization leverage that have not yet been cleared. Today's rebound came repeatedly, with a high opening in the morning, a rebound in the morning, and a full release in the afternoon. This "strong opening and weak closing" indicates that there is still significant pressure for profit taking, risk control, and position reduction during the rebound process.
1. Explicit credit financing has cumulatively decreased by 13.1%, but there was a rebound in data on July 21st. The most significant deterioration is that the daily decrease in custody funds is 5.83 trillion yuan, and R2 has risen back to 31.45%.
Debt has slightly increased, cash has significantly decreased, and the remaining financing position has become heavier relative to the available account cash.
2. On July 21st, the forced liquidation amount corresponding to unsettled transactions reached KRW 59.6 billion, higher than KRW 52.8 billion on July 20th, and remained above KRW 50 billion for two consecutive trading days, also the highest level since KRW 81.6 billion on July 10th.
More importantly, the proportion of forced liquidation amount to unsettled amount ranges from:
July 16th: 1.1%
July 20th: 4.6%
July 21st: 5.7%
Presenting a continuous upward trend
Although there has not been a comprehensive stampede style liquidation yet, the increase from 1.1% to 5.7% indicates that the passive processing pressure of ultra short term credit transactions is rapidly increasing.
This means that high-pressure leveling is still ongoing, but it has not yet formed a one-time ultimate clearance.
3. Retail investors continue to surrender, foreign investment continues to buy
1) On July 22nd, individual investors in South Korea:
Net sale of SK Hynix long leveraged ETF worth approximately 33.4 billion Korean won;
Net sale of Samsung Electronics long leveraged ETF worth approximately KRW 58.7 billion;
The combined net sales of the two amounted to approximately 92.1 billion Korean won;
At the same time, net purchases of SK Hynix reverse double ETF amounted to approximately 35.7 billion Korean won.
Moreover, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix long leveraged ETFs have been net sold by individual investors for two consecutive trading days.
Long position leverage has begun to substantially cool down, but it is not yet a complete clearance of product leverage, but rather a gradual shift from one-sided long positions to high-frequency long short games.
2) On July 22nd, KOSPI net foreign investment bought 2.6311 trillion Korean won
SK Hynix net purchases approximately 1.2563 trillion Korean won;
Samsung Electronics net purchase of approximately 0.5834 trillion Korean won;
The total amount of the two is about 1.8397 trillion Korean won;
Accounting for approximately 69.9% of all KOSPI net purchases by foreign investors.
Therefore, foreign investment is not indiscriminately buying into the entire South Korean market, but highly concentrated in undertaking two semiconductor leaders.
Overall
Foreign capital selectively dips semiconductor leaders, domestic institutions continue to reduce risks, and retail investors withdraw some funds from KOSPI spot and long leveraged ETFs,
Selling by individuals and buying by foreign capital means that some risks are transferred from the residential sector to global institutions, which is usually healthier than the structure of "joint selling by foreign capital and institutions, and individual buying by retail investors".
A conclusion can be drawn that:
The Korean stock market is in the middle to late stage of high volatility and repeated deleveraging, rather than the final liquidation stage.
Of course, the overall weakness of Asian stock markets today is also related to the macro environment
https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2079832563527684189? S=20: The pressure generated by the continued upward trend of debt, oil, and foreign exchange rates is still centered around oil prices. Of course, there are also hedging measures before Google's financial report
This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'
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