**["TACO Trade" Heats Up Again: Model Predicts Trump May Shift Iran Policy by Late July]** BlockBeats News, July 22 — Wall Street's popular "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is gaining support from quantitative models. Analysts from geopolitical consultancy Signum Global Advisors have used four key indicators—Brent crude oil prices, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, Hormuz Strait shipping traffic, and the S&P 500 index—to predict that Trump may adjust his hardline policy on Iran by late July. The model indicates that Trump typically requires market fluctuations of approximately 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviations to trigger a policy shift, with an average threshold of about 2.9 standard deviations. Based on current market trends, analysts believe the "TACO moment" has not yet arrived but is approaching, potentially as early as July 22 and no later than July 30, with July 26 considered the most likely date. Currently, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to elevate market pressures. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $91 per barrel, and the average U.S. gasoline price has exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-June. Disruptions in Hormuz Strait shipping, rising war costs, and U.S. military casualties are increasing political pressure on the Trump administration. Republican insiders warn that prolonged high oil prices could pose risks for the midterm elections, as energy costs may become a significant factor. Some conservative figures have noted that if oil prices exceed $90 during the ruling party's tenure, it could significantly weaken voter support. Analysts suggest that Trump's current hardline stance may partly aim to force Iran back to the negotiating table. However, as the conflict persists, the U.S. government will face greater policy pressure to choose between "further escalation" and "reducing military tensions." [Original Link]