Actually, the moment oil prices hit $90 yesterday, this year's rate-cut trade was already over. In June, U.S. CPI dropped by 0.4% mainly because energy prices fell by 5.7% in a single month, with gasoline down 9.7%. This was a short-lived price benefit from the temporary ceasefire in June. Now that oil prices are climbing back up, that benefit has already been used up. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for July 28–29 (U.S. time), and there's nearly a 90% chance of maintaining rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Moreover, if the war continues, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September will keep increasing. As for why there won’t be a hike in July, it’s still about employment rates—only 57,000 non-farm jobs were added in June. Additionally, based on Walsh’s last speech, he seems intent on maintaining rates at 3.75%–4.00% in the second half of the year, with plans to revisit rate cuts only in the first half of 2027. So, the most likely rhythm would be holding steady in July, a hike in September, and maintaining rates from October to December.