[Morgan Stanley: Central Bank Gold Purchases Accelerate but ETFs Absent, Gold and Silver Rebound Awaiting Buy-Side Return] Deep Tide TechFlow reports, according to Tide Research, Morgan Stanley's July 20 precious metals report indicates that central bank gold purchases are accelerating. China bought 14.9 tons of gold in June, marking the largest single-month increase since October 2023, and has been purchasing for 20 consecutive months. This year, China has accumulated 40.1 tons of gold purchases, surpassing last year's total. Poland and Uzbekistan have also increased their holdings simultaneously. However, gold ETFs saw an outflow of 74 tons in June, with North America being the primary selling region. Year-to-date, North American ETFs have net sold 60.5 tons. Central bank buying and ETF selling have offset each other, keeping gold prices stuck around $4,000. Silver has dropped approximately 23% this year, significantly more than gold's 8% decline. Weak demand for silver in photovoltaics, combined with ETF selling, has created dual pressure. Morgan Stanley believes the key to a rebound in gold and silver lies in the return of ETF buy-side activity, which depends on whether the Federal Reserve can avoid raising interest rates. Morgan Stanley's team of economists predicts that inflation will continue to decline and the Federal Reserve will remain on hold this year. If this judgment holds, ETF buy-side activity could return as early as the fourth quarter, with gold prices reaching $4,450 per ounce (approximately +11%) and silver prices reaching $65 per ounce (approximately +16%). However, if geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, downside risks for gold and silver will reopen.