看不懂的SOL|7月 22, 2026 03:12
How can the decline in the US stock market be transmitted to the Asian market?
This matter cannot be simply understood as:
The US stock market is falling, so Asia is bound to fall.
The true logic is:
After the US stock market falls, the market will reprice a bunch of variables.
Firstly, interest rate expectations will change.
If the US economic data exceeds expectations, the market may lower its expectations for interest rate cuts.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, leading to an increase in US bond yields and putting pressure on overvalued assets.
At this point, the pressure may not only be on US technology stocks, but also on technology and growth assets in Japan, South Korea, and China.
Because global funds will be compared again:
Where is the higher profit?
Where is the risk lower?
Where is the valuation too expensive?
Secondly, the direction of the US dollar will change.
If the US dollar strengthens, the Japanese yen, Korean won, and Chinese yuan will all be affected.
The Japanese market depends on the policies of the Bank of Japan, the trend of the yen, and the overseas income of companies.
The Korean market depends on semiconductor exports, storage prices, Korean won exchange rates, and global technology demand.
The Chinese market depends on domestic policies, RMB exchange rate, corporate profitability, and market valuation.
So the US stock market is just an external variable, not the standard answer.
Thirdly, the industrial chain will be re priced.
For example, if the reason for the decline in US technology stocks is the slowdown in AI capital expenditures, then Korean semiconductors, Japanese equipment, and Chinese hardware supply chains may all be affected.
But if it is only a short-term valuation correction and orders, demand, and profits remain unchanged, then the impact will be more emotional.
So when looking at the Asian market, we cannot just focus on the overnight rise and fall of US stocks.
I have a question to ask:
Is this decline an emotional shock or a fundamental change?
When ordinary people look at the global market, I think they should focus on six indicators:
Federal Reserve policies and bond yields.
Exchange rates of US dollar, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and Korean won.
Global capital risk appetite.
Commodities such as crude oil, gold, and copper.
China's economy and domestic policies.
Global demand for technology and manufacturing.
The sum of these variables is the system that truly influences the market.
The order of analysis is also important.
Let's first see what happened:
Is it central bank policies, inflation and employment, war risks, or corporate financial reports.
Looking at the transmission channels again:
Is it interest rates, exchange rates, funds, commodities, or industrial chains.
Then see who it affects:
Country, industry, company, fund.
Finally, look at the price.
Many people lose money because the order is reversed.
First, when the price drops, start looking for reasons.
When I first saw the rise of the US stock market, I felt that the world was about to collapse.
This is easily led by emotions.
6/Overnight US stocks are reference variables, not the standard answer for Asian stock markets the next day.
The global market does indeed influence each other, but the direction, intensity, and duration of the influence are not fixed.
The truly mature view is not that 'the US stock market is falling, so I'm also panicking'.
But to see clearly:
What is the event,
Through what channel is it transmitted,
Which assets are affected,
Has there been any change in the long-term fundamentals in the end.
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