Did institutions surrender and individual investors have an opportunity? ——The article is a bit long, and those who don't have the patience to read it can skip to the end to see the conclusion. The biggest difference between this cycle and the past is the introduction of BTC spot ETFs, which have opened the door to many traditional institutional funds and brought about significant changes in the market participation structure. For example, during this period, the net outflow of ETFs has slowed down, and the price of BTC has also begun to stabilize and rebound, showing insensitivity to external negative factors. These data are publicly available, but what valuable information is hidden behind them that deserves our attention? Let's start with logic: ETF net flow is a primary market behavior, and only when the ETF price deviates from the NAV (net asset value), the AP (authorized participant) will use "subscription/redemption" to hedge the price difference. And the "ETF net traffic" data we often see is the net application/redemption statistics. So, net traffic essentially records the net result of AP arbitrage activities. Only when the selling/buying pressure is so great that the price is pulled out of the premium or discounted, and continues beyond the arbitrage cost line, will it be converted into a net inflow/outflow on the data. The trading volume of ETFs is a turnover in the secondary market, where buyers and sellers transact with each other on the exchange without any application or redemption. Reanalysis of data: After understanding the above logic, it becomes meaningful for us to analyze and compare relevant data again! As shown in the figure: January and February were characterized by high trading volume and small net outflows—— The market is highly divided, with panic selling accompanied by a large amount of funds taking over. Most of the selling pressure is absorbed by buying in the secondary market, and the proportion of redemptions in the primary market is very low. The period from May to July was characterized by low trading volume and significant net outflow—— The total selling pressure may not be greater than in January and February, but the difference is that marginal buying has disappeared. No one accepted the offer, even a gentle sell would keep the ETF at a premium and transmit it to AP redemptions. So, the focus here is on the absence of the buyer, not the enhancement of the seller. If "fast money" (including institutions and retail investors) surrendered in January and February, then "slow money" surrendered in May and July, most of which were institutions. For example, when an investment advisory platform reduces its allocation, the decision to rebalance its position allocation needs to go through a process, and if it does not seize the timing, it will naturally lag behind (including the mechanical closing of hedge fund arbitrage positions). Finally, let me express my opinion: Based on the above data analysis, we have reason to believe that the second stage of "surrender" at the institutional level from May to July is usually the tail form of clearance. However, the data cannot provide an answer to how long this' tail 'will last. It is only a confirmation indicator, but not a leading indicator. Does institutional surrender mean an opportunity for individual investors? I personally think: Yes! The most incredible thing about this cycle is that a large number of institutional chips are tied up at the top of the mountain (such as BTC bought by MSTR at 100000+is still there today). For some institutions, this is their first time playing encryption and their first cycle of experience. In terms of experience, determination, and understanding of cycles, they are even inferior to many old leeks. Institutions are wolves, retail investors are sheep, and this time the high in and low out institutions and large investors, in our eyes, are a group of "stupid wolves". Of course, in the eyes of wolves, we are always sheep, so one day they will come back. And what we need to do is - fuck him! Seize his illness and take his life (callback is an opportunity). When they come back and raise the price, the retail investors who chase after them will become lambs waiting to be slaughtered ....