A month ago, Multicoin, which calculated a benchmark valuation of $319 for HYPE, had just released 1.96 million HYPE pledges Is it another great retreat? Don't worry for now, releasing the pledge doesn't mean selling But it does mean that these chips, which were originally locked in the pledge, have regained liquidity and opened up a potential selling window According to on chain data, three addresses marked as associated with Multicoin have a total of approximately 1.96 million HYPE staked, with a value of approximately 120 million US dollars calculated at 60-61 US dollars The three addresses are 0xd4d56a30a4a745f8ba732e8b453b7066260fbc10 0x57c6d4bd52f592a265f59b595a905b04c848174b 0xab319403e72c5e97c65ef70031bab8827efc5297 And this batch of HYPE pledges only lasted for about two months A month ago, Multicoin released the complete valuation report for HYPE, with a benchmark scenario of approximately $319 by 2028. Now that a large amount of pledge has been released, the market will naturally ask: What are you planning to do while valuing $319 and taking out $120 million of HYPE from the pledge? No one currently knows the answer It may be sold, exchanged for verification nodes to continue pledging, or adjusted through custody, position or fund arrangements So now, we cannot directly translate 'de pledging' as' smashing the market ', as the market has not fully responded yet But we cannot pretend that there is no risk involved in this matter Because in the short-term market, price trading is never based on the final fact, but on whether potential supply will turn into real selling pressure What is the potential supply of this $120 million? The protocol fee for Hyperliquid over the past 30 days is approximately $58 million. That is to say, based on the scale of the US dollar, the HYPE pledged this time is close to twice the transaction fee of the past 30 days' agreement Of course, the handling fee does not mean that all orders will be converted into spot purchases on the same day, and the release of the pledge does not mean that all orders will be sold on the same day. The two cannot be mechanically subtracted But this set of data at least indicates: If these chips really continue to flow into the market, short-term supply pressure will not be a small variable that can be ignored Looking at the leverage structure near the price again Calculated around $61.07, if the price drops by 5% to $58.02, the potential long liquidation would be approximately $3.7 million, dropping to $54.97, and the potential long liquidation would expand to approximately $23.1 million Further down to $51.91, there is a potential long liquidation of approximately $52.5 million; The largest single clearing cluster is around $52.83, approximately $10 million So the market is not just watching whether Multicoin will sell or not Once the real selling pressure appears, will the positions of 58, 55, and 52.8 be easily penetrated, which is the real danger in the short term But if we only see these 1.96 million HYPEs, ignoring the other side of Hyperliquid is also incomplete At the same time, the number of open positions in Hyperliquid at the same time rose to about 321400, a historic high, corresponding to an OI of about 11.42 billion US dollars Note that this is the number of positions, not the number of independent users But compared to the previous high point of OI, the changes are still worth watching: Previously, when OI reached approximately $15.29 billion, there were also approximately 234000 open positions; The US dollar OI has not yet returned to that high point, but the number of positions has already increased This means that trading activities on the platform are at least becoming more dispersed, rather than just a few large positions pushing OI up The transaction fee data is also supporting this judgment In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid has generated approximately $58 million in protocol fees, which is about twice that of TRON and about 1.6 times higher than the combined total of Solana, BSC, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Although it may not seem like a direct positive, it does not automatically guarantee an immediate increase in HYPE But it determines that Hyperliquid still has the ability to continuously generate protocol revenue and provide fuel for repurchases There is not completely no space above either From $61 upwards, the potential short liquidation around $64.13 is only about $1.7 million, and the first fuel is not thick But at $67.18, the potential short liquidation is about $10.4 million; Approximately $20.4 million around $70.23 So the path of the market next is actually very clear: If the resolution delays the flow of funds to the exchange, the real selling pressure will suppress the price, and the long liquidation band below 58 will become a risk again If this batch of HYPE does not form a sustained sale, the platform's position quantity and handling fees are still increasing, and the liquidation of short positions above 67-70 may provide upward fuel in turn When the $120 million HYPE returns from a locked position to a tradable state, the market has reason to be nervous first As for whether this is a great retreat or a panic test to make the market hand over cheap chips, the answer will be given by the flow of funds on the chain. HYPE Hyperliquid