The probability of the Clarity Act passing is currently 49% on Polymarket, roughly a coin toss. Kind of like when two evenly matched teams face off in the World Cup—either side could win. Tom Lee retweeted SeanMFarrell (Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat)'s perspective: His conversations with policymakers suggest the probability of passing is higher than what prediction markets are showing. Polymarket and Kalshi are likely underestimating the chances of it passing. In other words, there’s a case of mispricing. The reason: Information disclosure or trading restrictions are preventing insiders from easily trading on this outcome. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that the CLARITY Act is already at the “one-yard line” (meaning it’s very close to passing). That said, until the final text is released and the vote happens, there’s still room for uncertainty.