Yigol
Yigol|Jul 21, 2026 14:56
MU bitcoin:native I think this round of the AI market has entered the hardest phase to make money. Not because AI has stopped growing. Quite the opposite—market expectations suggest semiconductor earnings in Q2 might grow by about 133% year-over-year. And that’s exactly the problem. When everyone knows the performance will be great, “great” itself stops being a positive catalyst. Micron ($MU) rebounded about 4.7% today, but I won’t confirm a reversal just because of one green candle. What really matters next is this: On the next pullback, will it break new lows? If Micron and SK Hynix retest their previous lows but don’t break them, and the SOX index ($SOXX) also stabilizes, I’d consider this round of shakeout to be nearing its end. But this logic doesn’t just apply to AI. $BTC is going through something similar right now: The market isn’t lacking long-term bullish narratives; what’s missing is a new liquidity catalyst. Gold is in the same boat: Geopolitical risks provide safe-haven demand, but high interest rates suppress valuations. So, in reality, all four markets are grappling with the same question: How much of the good future has already been priced in? My strategy is very clear: For AI, I won’t chase the first rebound; I’ll wait for a second pullback to confirm. For $BTC, I won’t try to catch the bottom; I’ll wait for relative strength to emerge. For gold, I won’t chase geopolitical sentiment; I’ll focus on real interest rates. The biggest opportunities often don’t come when there’s the most good news. Instead, they come when— Bad news is still around, but the price refuses to drop further. In the next phase, I’ll focus on just one signal: Who shows “bad news, no drop” first—that’s where I’ll prioritize my research.
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