福禄寿 UV DAO|Jul 21, 2026 12:56
BTC is back above $66,000, and the biggest catalyst for the rebound is still the breakthrough with the *CLARITY Act*. The market is starting to reprice expectations for the implementation of the U.S. crypto regulatory framework. Once the act is officially passed, it will further reduce regulatory uncertainty for institutions entering the crypto market, which holds more long-term significance than short-term capital inflows.
Changes in capital flows are already validating this logic. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $227 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs also resumed net inflows. At the same time, BTC's MVRV percentile has dropped to around 5%, indicating that on-chain valuations have returned to historically low levels, enhancing its long-term allocation value. However, this doesn’t mean there’s no short-term risk in the market.
That said, there are still divergences in on-chain capital movements. Some are staking an additional 7,000 ETH, while a BTC whale holding for 12 years has chosen to cash out the last portion of their position. This shows that the current market is not a unanimous bull run but rather one driven by policy expectations, with incremental funds absorbing chips from long-term profit-takers.
The market’s next key variables are twofold: First, whether the *CLARITY Act* can successfully complete the legislative process; second, whether U.S.-Iran tensions escalate further. Trump is expected to decide in the coming days whether to expand military actions against Iran. If the Middle East conflict escalates fully, oil prices, inflation, and liquidity expectations could once again dominate the market narrative, impacting the performance of global risk assets, including crypto. bitcoin:native
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