crypto指南针(满血版)🔶BNB|7月 21, 2026 11:02
On Monday, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of $227 million in one go—making it the biggest day in the past two weeks. BlackRock led the charge with $116 million, followed by Cathie Wood’s ARKB with $72 million. Over on the Ethereum side, there was an inflow of $38 million.
But the most interesting part isn’t the ETFs themselves—it’s the contradiction between them and on-chain data.
CryptoQuant released some data: BTC’s MVRV percentile is currently at 5%. In plain terms: 95% of the time in Bitcoin’s history, the market valuation has been more expensive than it is now. The last time we saw this signal was in February this year, when BTC dropped below $60K before rebounding above $70K. And now it’s happening again.
Here’s the issue—ETFs are buying big, on-chain data says it’s cheap, but the whales are acting completely differently. One old whale, who’s been hoarding BTC since 2013, transferred 1,000 BTC to Binance, likely to sell. Another whale, who’s been holding for six years, moved 2,000 BTC and sold 800 of them OTC. That’s selling.
On the flip side, someone spent $20 million to buy ETH at $1,905 and staked it immediately. Another new wallet withdrew 12,800 ETH from Binance and staked all of it. That’s buying.
So here’s the current situation: the data says prices are cheap, ETFs are buying, but whales are split—half are selling, half are buying. The market agrees it’s ‘cheap,’ but hasn’t agreed that it’s ‘time to pump.’ Money is flowing in, coins are flowing out—now it’s just a matter of who gets tired first.
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