Today's US stock market summary: CTA breakout trigger imminent, Oracle CDS soar, but short positions also pile up at high levels Geopolitics and Energy: Oil Prices Exceeding 80, Becoming a New Variable Suppressing the Market The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the US military conducting airstrikes on targets in Yemen and the Middle East. The Houthis have announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, restricting its passage through the Babimand Strait. What is even more alarming is that the strategic and commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have dropped to only enough to support 43 days, the lowest level in the past 45 years. The combined pressure of supply and demand has caused WTI crude oil prices to soar above $80, and the average gasoline price in the United States has once again surpassed $4 per gallon. If this round of rebound in oil prices continues, it will reignite market concerns about inflation. Macro: 30-year US Treasury yield hits new high since 2007 The yield of 30-year treasury bond bonds auctioned by the US Treasury Department reached 5.06%, the highest since 2007. The reason behind this is that technology giants such as Google and Microsoft are issuing bonds to finance AI infrastructure construction in a large scale. These bond issuance demands are competing with the treasury bond market for funds, indirectly driving up the overall borrowing costs and putting pressure on stock valuation. Another noteworthy signal is that the 6-month implied correlation of the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.15 (historical average of approximately 0.43), indicating a severe divergence in trends among individual stocks, a significant increase in independence, and an increasingly prominent market characteristic of stock selection being more important than betting on index direction. The debt risks of tech giants are beginning to emerge The 100 year bond previously issued by Google has fallen to about $90 and is in discounted trading, reflecting deepening concerns in the market about the giant's unrestrained issuance of bonds to expand capital expenditures. Even more alarming is Oracle, whose stock price has plummeted by about 52% since the end of May, and CDS (credit default swaps) have rapidly surged, becoming a leading indicator of debt risk spread. In the next few months, it is suggested that the focus should be shifted from simply focusing on the stock price to tracking the CDS and treasury bond bond yield (Move index) of these technology companies. Such signals are often reflected earlier than the stock price. Technical aspect: SPY encounters resistance and falls back, CTA's breakthrough trigger level is right in front of us After filling the previous gap, SPY encountered resistance and fell back around 749-750. The short-term key support is at 739-740. Once it falls, it may further explore 730 or even 722-723. More importantly, both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have fallen below the critical trigger point of the Goldman Sachs CTA model (S&P falling below 7446). If this position is effectively breached, the next trigger point for the S&P 500 will be 7165, and the Nasdaq 100 will be at 27400. This means that in the next one or two weeks, the mechanized selling pressure of quantitative funds may continue to be released. Goldman Sachs' data shows that momentum strategies are experiencing a historically regular and severe pullback. Although the most brutal stage of bursting leverage has passed, the trend itself is likely to be disrupted, and the programmed selling pressure will take at least two more weeks to fully digest. Open high and walk low today On Monday, the US stock market was boosted by strong demand for China's Kimi K3, and AI and semiconductor stocks rose 7% to 9% in early trading. However, they then fell all day, with the S&P closing slightly lower and the Nasdaq basically flat. The S&P was also rejected by the 20 day moving average on this day. The Kimi K3 model itself consumes extreme computing power and memory, causing the official to temporarily suspend new user subscriptions, which stimulated early market volatility in related concept stocks such as IREN, Cipher Digital Neocloud, and storage chips. However, the sentiment did not continue until the close. Tonight, the South Korean stock market was guided by Morgan Stanley to rise to 12500 in each month from June to December, which led to a rebound in the US semiconductor market. The most important thing is to see if SOXX and semiconductor stocks can effectively return to the key position of EMA 20. Market retracement targets: S&P sees 7000, Nasdaq sees 26500 with 100 Based on the comprehensive technical analysis and quantitative models, it is highly likely that the retracement from the high point in this round will not exceed 10%. The S&P will at most retrace to the support area of 7000, which corresponds to the 200 day moving average and the previous strong resistance turning support level. The callback target for the Nasdaq 100 is around 26500. There is a valuation anchor worth remembering, when the S&P retraces to 7000 points, the forward P/E ratio will drop from the current 20 times to around 18 times. In historical experience, an 18 times P/E ratio is often a strong support level for the market to bottom out and rebound. Moreover, the profit forecast for the S&P 500 this quarter remains strong, with an expected year-on-year growth rate of 24%. This fundamental will become the most important underlying support after the correction, which is why this correction is more likely to be a bull market relay rather than a bear market core reason. Short positions have also piled up to historical highs, and the fuel for short positions has been prepared The short positions on this side are also at a high level, with the proportion of short positions in S&P 500 constituent stocks approaching 3.7% of the overall market, setting a new high for this year. This means that once a rebound is triggered, the force of short selling may be quite intense, and the time window worth noting is the financial reports of several major tech giants at the end of the month. If the financial reports on the 29th and 30th fully exploit the previous bearish sentiment, there is a high possibility of a forced rebound in the coming days. Bitcoin is also worth keeping an eye on, as it often reacts one step ahead of the US stock market If Bitcoin rebounds to around EMA100 (approximately 68100) and falsely breaks through the previous high of 67500 on June 15th, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of a surge and a pullback. If it can fill the FVG gap of around 68200 and quickly fall back after a false breakthrough, coupled with the current positive capital rate, there is reason to believe that it is likely to continue to be bearish and test the previous low in the future. Due to the high correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market, and the fact that Bitcoin usually reacts earlier than the US stock market, if it really breaks out of this "false breakthrough+rapid decline" pattern, the US stock market also needs to be more cautious in advance. Summary The core contradiction today lies in two macro variables: the breakthrough of oil prices over 80% and the record high yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds. Coupled with the imminent CTA breakout trigger, there is indeed a technical risk of further decline in the short term. The target levels of S&P 7000 and Nasdaq 100 26500 are the support areas that need to be focused on next. On the other hand, the historical support of an 18 times P/E ratio, an expected profit growth rate of 24%, and short positions that have already piled up to historical highs are all accumulating strength for a possible forced rebound in the future. The financial reports of several major tech giants at the end of the month will be a key verification window. The trend of Bitcoin is worth tracking synchronously as a forward-looking reference for the short-term direction of the US stock market. The overall judgment is still that short-term fluctuations will increase, but this is a relay correction in a bull market, not the beginning of a reversal in the bear market trend.