This week's technical analysis: The negative Gamma window opens, and short-term fluctuations will significantly amplify Let's start with the conclusion: this is a normal pullback in a bull market, not the beginning of a bear market. In recent days, almost all technical indicators are pointing in the same direction: short-term bearish. The bullish divergence between the weekly and daily levels of VIX has been confirmed, and there is a high probability that volatility will continue to rise. The US dollar index continued to bottom out and rebound after the flag shaped consolidation, and historically, the strengthening of the US dollar often suppressed US stocks. The three major indices (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell 2000) have all shown varying degrees of short-term periodic top signals. But these signals are stacked together, and I estimate that it will take a few more weeks to adjust until the end. Then, there will be a rebound in August, a double bottom or higher low in September, and there will be no change in the Q4 S&P target of 8000 to 8200 by the end of the year. Gamma structure: The market has slid into the negative Gamma region, and fluctuations will be amplified The S&P 500 is currently located near 7467, which happens to be stuck at the edge of zero gamma to negative gamma. Once the market truly falls into the negative Gamma zone, the hedging behavior of market makers will become "selling when falling and buying when rising". This opportunistic operation will significantly amplify the intraday volatility of the market, creating more false breakthroughs and drops. VIX is currently also in the negative Gamma zone, indicating the potential conditions for the market to experience violent fluctuations or even panic selling. The trading pace in these days will be more cautious than usual. Quantitative fund mechanical selling pressure: several key trigger points to remember With the technical breakthrough of the market, volatility controlled funds and mechanical momentum tracking funds such as CTA may passively trigger sales. Goldman Sachs analyzed that if it falls below 7440, CTA will start to quantitatively sell, and the next support will be at 7175. The CTA estimated selling trigger levels for the S&P 500 are roughly: mild selling pressure at 7355, moderate selling pressure at 7255, and if heavy selling is triggered, it will fall below 7165. Once these levels are broken through, the downward trend may accelerate. SPY's 740 put wall SPY has a clear Put Wall around 740 throughout the day, and the index has been unable to effectively stabilize above the opening price. After filling the previous gap, it encountered resistance and fell back around 749-750. The short-term key support is at 739-740, and once lost, it may further decline to 730 or even 722-723. The expected range for the day is roughly on the upper track of 747-749 and the lower track of 735-737. The 1-hour chart has already entered the bearish range. If there is no rebound in the morning session, it is likely to directly explore the lower track of the range, and the selling pressure may continue until Thursday and Friday. The weekly MACD has also started to turn downwards, which in historical experience often indicates a slowdown in upward momentum and a prolonged period of oscillation or correction. The final bottom line judgment for the pullback is that the S&P will not fall below EMA200 (approximately 7000), and we will see if 7200 will hit a double bottom and fluctuate within the range of 7200-7600. QQ: Only by breaking through and returning to 726 to create a higher peak can the market possibly reverse strongly The expected fluctuation range of QQQ is roughly on the upper track 705-710 and the lower track 686-687, and the 1-hour chart is also in a clear negative trend. Bulls need to rebound strongly and break through the strong resistance level of 726 in order to truly reverse the situation, otherwise short-term rebounds are more likely to form lower highs, not a true reversal. This morning's high was EMA 50 705. Let's see if EMA 20 714 will be tested on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 is also below the downward 10 day moving average, and continues to be constrained by the key resistance zone of 29000-29250. The final bottom line judgment for the pullback is that the Nasdaq 100 will not fall below the EMA200 around 26500. IWM: Multiple divergence signals from daily and weekly lines are dense, and the upper bound of annual expected volatility has been touched The situation on Russell 2000 is relatively the worst. RSI has shown triple or even quadruple divergence, and the stock price has reached the annual expected fluctuation range, indicating a clear signal of peaking. The previous rebound attempt on the 1-hour chart has been disrupted, and the divergence signal has been erased. The trend tends to continue following the downward trend of the market and technology stocks, with a short-term downward target roughly pointing towards around 289. Semiconductor: High opening and low closing today Today, the semiconductor sector (Micron, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, etc.) opened high in early trading and hit the upper limit of expected intraday volatility before collectively falling back, closing at a low for the whole day, reflecting strong selling pressure at high levels. Speaking of AMD alone, it has been rising along the EMA 20 for three months and then fell below the EMA 50 last week, which is considered strong in the entire sector. However, if the semiconductor sector's correction is not over, AMD is likely to make up for the decline. Today, after hitting the EMA 20 high, it was hit back. The 10 day and 20 day moving averages still maintain a downward slope and are currently experiencing a temporary oscillation between EMA 50 and EMA 20. See if there will be a fake breakthrough, a surge, and a pullback at the AMD conference on July 22-23. Even if AMD holds an AI related conference and releases positive news or Google's financial report performs well in the future, it is necessary to prevent the market from using these news as an excuse to "sell out at high prices". Do not simply assume that positive news will definitely drive sector reversal. The reversal of negative news will still come after the giant's financial report verifies capital expenditures and free cash flow. Cross market signal: US bond yields and US dollar strengthen synchronously, suppressing risky assets The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds surged by 1.21% in a single day, The US dollar index is in a defensive and resistance state. If the US dollar continues to break upwards (with an inverse head and shoulder on the weekly chart and a target of 104 and 105), it will continue to suppress gold, silver, and risky assets. From a longer-term historical perspective, whenever the US dollar rebounds from a low level and strengthens, the S&P often enters a period of sideways consolidation or periodic correction. Crude oil: Short term breakthrough may reverse inflation concerns Crude oil (USO) is currently trying to break through the 50 day moving average. Due to the lack of significant easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation, if oil prices strengthen again and start an upward trend, it will once again raise concerns about inflation and macroeconomic pressure in the market. The important pressure level is around 88, and if it does not fall below the 20 day moving average (around 78) in the short term, it is highly likely that it will continue to rise. However, if the cycle is prolonged, crude oil will still be judged as bearish in the long run, and this general direction will not change. Summary The core logic of this week is that the negative Gamma environment has opened up, and the mechanical selling pressure trigger levels for CTA and volatility controlled funds are just around the corner. But several key long-term bottom line judgments have not changed. The S&P will not fall below EMA200 (7000), and the Nasdaq 100 will not fall below EMA200 (26500). This is just a normal pullback in a bull market, not the beginning of a bear market. In the short term, the third quarter is likely to remain volatile, and the performance in the fourth quarter will be significantly better. The S&P target for the end of the year is still set at 8000 to 8200 points. I think the QQQ hedging strategy shared yesterday (bear market bearish spread due on August 21, 2026) is still applicable at present. The position in the main stock remains unchanged, and this hedging is mainly to provide a layer of hedging insurance for short-term adjustments. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the South Korean stock market has already started to rebound today, and it is highly likely that semiconductor stocks will continue to rise on Tuesday and Wednesday. Next, we will closely monitor whether QQQ, SOXX, SPY, and several core semiconductor stocks can truly break through their respective EMA20. If it can stand firm and transform into support, the strength and sustainability of the short-term rebound will be stronger than expected. If it only encounters resistance and falls back when encountering EMA20, it is highly likely that it will still confirm the rhythm of "rebound, short selling" mentioned earlier, and continue to maintain cautious tracking.