看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Jul 21, 2026 05:26
The linkage of the global market can actually be divided into five lines. By understanding these five lines, one will not mechanically judge that 'Asia will also be finished tomorrow' when the US stock market falls. Article 1: Financial Transmission. The Federal Reserve's adjustment of interest rates will change the attractiveness of US dollar assets. If the return on US dollar assets is higher, global funds may flow back to the United States. If risk appetite decreases, funds may flow from stocks to bonds, cash, or safe haven assets. At this point, there will be inflows or outflows of funds in different markets. So sometimes what you see is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but a reordering of funds. 2/Article 2: Valuation Transmission. The increase in US bond yields will raise the market discount rate. For high valuation growth stocks, this impact is particularly evident. Because of their value, many of them come from profit expectations for many years to come. The higher the interest rate, the lower the discounted value of future profits to today. That's why technology stocks, AI stocks, and semiconductors are often particularly sensitive to interest rates. It's not that the company suddenly failed. But the valuation multiple that the market is willing to give has changed. Article 3: Exchange rate transmission. The strengthening of the US dollar will affect currencies such as the Japanese yen, Korean won, Chinese yuan, and euro. When the exchange rate changes, the import cost, export revenue, and foreign currency debt of enterprises will also change. For example, the depreciation of the local currency may benefit export enterprises, but it may also increase import costs and debt pressure. So even with the strengthening of the US dollar, different industries feel different levels of pressure. Article 4: Transmission of industrial chain. Nowadays, many companies are not only doing business in their own country. Chips, materials, equipment, automobiles, electronics, and consumer goods all have cross-border industrial chains behind them. The changing demand for technology in the United States will affect South Korean semiconductors. The change in demand for Chinese manufacturing will affect Japanese equipment. The cooling of global consumption will affect the profits of export chain enterprises. The stock price is just the result. Orders, inventory, prices, and profits are the core of transmission. Article 5: Emotional transmission. This is the fastest and also the most easily misunderstood one. The US stock market fell sharply, and investors' risk appetite decreased. The Asian market may be hit by emotions the next day. But emotional transmission may not necessarily last. If domestic policies, valuations, and profits are stronger, the market may quickly recover. So in the short term, we look at emotions, but in the long term, we still look at fundamentals. My understanding is that global markets are interconnected, not because everyone has to rise and fall together. But it's because everyone shares the same financial network. Any change in funding, valuation, exchange rate, industry chain, or sentiment can affect asset prices.
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