链研社|AI First🔶💧|Jul 21, 2026 05:10
There are many reasons why insiders sell stocks, but usually only one reason why they buy—because they believe the stock price will go up.
I've seen plenty of cases in the U.S. stock market where executives and insiders sell at low points, but overall, the accuracy of sell signals is actually quite low.
It's more common to see situations where insiders sell, institutions increase their holdings, and the stock price eventually rises. I've experienced this with Duolingo and Cloudflare. The more valuable information often comes from those who are putting real money on the line for the company. Tracking and analyzing their target prices and judgments can be insightful.
There's also another scenario: insiders buy, institutions reduce holdings, and the media is bearish, but the stock price still goes up. This happens quite often. People within the company usually know what's really going on, unlike institutions or the media. This was very typical with UnitedHealth (UNH) and Google. Such situations usually occur in companies undergoing a turnaround.
Digging deeper, institutions tend to have a broader macro perspective, with more experience in judging industries, currency trends, etc. Insiders, on the other hand, might sell due to being deeply involved in the company's development, personal reasons, or portfolio diversification. For example, people working at high-growth companies early on might not buy their own company's stock—partly because they always feel there are issues within the company, and partly because they're already enjoying the company's benefits.
When insiders start buying or increasing their holdings, or when a company begins consistent buybacks, those are also very clear signals. They know the company is undervalued and have a better understanding of future cash flow. In most cases, they're right.
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