BitUnix analyst: A 10 day ceasefire proposal has emerged, but the three risk chains of energy, shipping, and capital costs have not yet loosened BlockBeats News: On July 21st, a new diplomatic window emerged in the US Iran conflict. Iran confirms receipt of the "10 day ceasefire" proposal proposed by the mediator, while Qatar and Pakistan are pushing for both sides to return to the status quo before July 9th in order to resume the implementation of the previous memorandum of understanding. However, on the same day, the US military launched airstrikes on Iranian targets for the 10th consecutive day. Trump also publicly stated that if Iran causes the death of US troops again, it will pay "many times the price", indicating that military pressure and diplomatic contacts are still advancing simultaneously. The market needs to note that such ceasefire proposals are more like technical arrangements to buy negotiation time, rather than signals that the conflict is about to end. Because the real core disagreement between the United States and Iran still revolves around the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping safety. Iran has clearly regarded Hormuz as the lifeline of national security, while the United States sees the resumption of commercial shipping as one of the main reasons for continuing military action. Until substantial progress is made on this issue, the energy supply chain will still be difficult to restore normalcy. The larger variables come from the Red Sea. The Houthis announced a maritime ban on Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia stated that it will take necessary military action to ensure the safety of the Strait of Mandeb. This means that the global market is facing risks from two energy arteries at the same time: the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for the export of crude oil from the Persian Gulf, while the Strait of Mandeb is related to Saudi Arabia's approximately 4.9 million barrels per day of crude oil exported through the Red Sea. Even if the Houthis may not actually block the waterway in the end, this statement alone is enough to drive up insurance costs, change ship schedules, and disrupt shipping expectations. In addition to energy risks, there are also new supply shocks coming from the Black Sea. The Kazakh CPC oil terminal was forced to shut down after another attack on oil tankers, and the export of grain from Ukraine and Russia was also blocked simultaneously. This means that the market is no longer just concerned about Middle Eastern crude oil, but has a dual supply pressure of "energy+food". When the rise in oil prices drives up transportation and fertilizer costs, and Black Sea grain exports are restricted, the inflationary pressure on emerging markets and import dependent countries will further expand. This supply shock is resonating with the hawkish discussions within the Federal Reserve that are heating up again. Former New York Fed President Dudley believes that the demand expansion brought by AI investment, rising energy prices, and a still loose financial environment may all put greater pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in the fall; But Morgan Stanley insists on keeping interest rates unchanged throughout the year, believing that the spontaneously tightening financial conditions in the market are equivalent to several interest rate hikes. What truly deserves attention is not which viewpoint prevails, but the Federal Reserve's tolerance between "energy inflation" and "economic slowdown". Wall Street funds have already adopted defensive strategies in advance. The US money market fund, which manages over $8 trillion in assets, has recently significantly shortened its duration and increased its holdings of overnight repo and floating rate bonds, reflecting that large funds are willing to give up some returns and want to retain higher reinvestment flexibility. This is actually preparing for two scenarios: if oil prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time; If the conflict suddenly cools down, the speed of repricing short-term interest rates may also be very fast. For risk assets, the biggest pressure in the current environment does not come from a single event, but from the lack of predictability in both policy and supply chain. Any new actual interruption at the three key nodes of the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mandeb, and the Black Sea could quickly transmit to oil prices, grain prices, and bond yields; Under the leadership of Walsh, the Federal Reserve deliberately reduced its forward guidance, making it more difficult for the market to lock in policy paths in advance. In the short term, the market will focus on three observation points: whether the 10 day ceasefire plan can receive substantial responses from both the US and Iran, whether the Houthis will take action against Saudi related ships, and when CPC terminals will resume shipping. These three signals will determine whether energy risk remains at the "expected level" or further evolves into a real supply gap.