mignolet
mignolet|Jul 21, 2026 00:25
I continue to emphasize that this pattern is fundamentally no different from what we saw in April and May. Long periods of uncertainty with no clear direction create frustration, fuel doubt, and gradually wear down investors' confidence. People naturally prefer certainty over uncertainty. That's why analyses and data that claim to provide a "clear answer" from a cycle perspective tend to attract so much attention. Meanwhile, the price continues to grind higher, steadily building expectations. At the same time, the market creates signals that reinforce those expectations, strengthening investors' conviction and ultimately triggering FOMO. This exact pattern has repeated itself at last year's market top, again in January this year, and once more during April and May. Large market participants clearly understand how retail investors think and make decisions and they actively exploit that psychology. What's important is that, when you look closely, this pattern keeps repeating itself in almost the exact same way, yet investors continue to fall for it. That simply shows how effectively large market participants combine multiple factors to influence investor psychology. It's the classic case of, "I knew it... but I still got caught." My view hasn't changed. The current price increase is not the beginning of a new uptrend. The only real question is whether the market will push expectations to an even greater extreme just as it did in April and May.(mignolet)
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