In the first half of 2026, it is predicted that the total amount of suspicious transactions in the market will be about 200 million US dollars, and insider trading will surge

According to Bloomberg Businessweek, between January and June 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket predict that the total amount of suspicious transactions marked in the market will be approximately $200 million. Bloomberg's analysis of approximately 34000 transactions marked by Polysights shows that geopolitical and war related bets are the main driving forces, with Iran related bets peaking in late February. Of the marked transactions, 71% were funded through regulated cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States. The top 1% of profitable wallets capture over half of the profits, with 57% of wallets created within 24 hours prior to transactions.