Phyrex|7月 20, 2026 18:50
Although oil prices haven't seen a significant drop yet, today we saw Iran's Interior Minister arrive in Islamabad. This indicates that both Iran and the U.S. are still leaving room for diplomatic negotiations. Especially today, there’s a video from Al Jazeera showing Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirming that under third-party mediation, the U.S. and Iran might reopen a new round of peace talks. This is what I often say: the Strait of Hormuz is not solely a U.S. issue.
Since the start of this conflict, Iran has treated Hormuz as its own backyard. Charging fees for the Strait of Hormuz itself violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. So, I think the U.S.'s military blockade against Iran this time is actually welcomed by most countries—after all, no one wants Iran to set a precedent for privatizing straits.
Of course, this doesn’t mean oil prices will return to their lows in the short term, but the opening of negotiation windows is good for market expectations of successful peace talks. Neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to enter a full-scale war, so the scope and scale of this conflict are actually quite limited.
Also, with the World Cup over, many friends are saying funds are starting to flow back into risk markets. I haven’t seen the data yet, but today’s bitcoin:native performance is pretty solid, outperforming U.S. stocks by quite a bit. The frustrating part is that my $65,000 dual-currency sell option expiring tomorrow is likely to be exercised based on the current trend. Not sure if there’s still a chance for me to buy back at a lower price.
On the other hand, my low-buy order at $62,000 didn’t go through either. If the $65,000 sell order gets exercised tomorrow, my low-buy target might have to move up to $63,000 or $64,000. Feeling a bit bummed about it.
@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, prediction markets—all in one platform.
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