The situation between the U.S. and Iran is still chaotic. The latest update is that while senior Iranian sources have stated that mediators proposed a 10-day pause in attacks to buy time for a temporary agreement between Iran and the U.S., the Yemeni Houthi forces then issued an official statement announcing a maritime navigation ban on Saudi Arabia. This shows that the Middle East is still in a 'talk while fighting' state. Just as there were signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, new risks have emerged in the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz determines whether crude oil can be exported smoothly, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait affects whether Red Sea shipping can operate normally. Any escalation on either front will push oil prices and shipping costs higher again. The so-called pause in attacks is more about creating a window for negotiations and doesn’t mean the risks are gone. As long as conflicts continue to spread across different regions, it will be hard for oil prices to truly cool down, and the global market will struggle to escape the main narrative of energy, inflation, and interest rate expectations. BNO