Tracking and analyzing Bitcoin on-chain data and market participant behavior ETF Funds: Two consecutive weeks of inflows (+$273M), ending an 8-week outflow streak. Marginal improvement, but scale remains limited. LTH + Miners: The strongest supply-side hodling signal. LTH holdings hit an all-time high, miners are not selling, and coins are not flowing to exchanges. STH/LTH Crossover: Bear market bottom signal has been triggered, but the bottom is not yet confirmed. Need to wait for an upward crossover. Check out the summary table below for market participant behavior tracking. The current market shows a structural divergence: "smart money is buying, short-term money is selling." Buyers: LTHs, whales, miners, ETF institutions (in the past two weeks). All four groups are buying/accumulating/locking up coins. Sellers: Short-term holders (STHs) are still selling at a loss. Coins are shifting from short-term holders to long-term holders and whales. With LTH holdings at an all-time high, miners not selling, and ETFs seeing two consecutive weeks of inflows, all three forces point to a tightening supply side. Short-term holders are still exiting at a loss, indicating the market hasn’t reached the "everyone is bullish" stage yet. Sentiment remains cautious. Core conflict: The supply side is tightening (bullish), but the demand side has yet to form sustained buying pressure (neutral to slightly weak). Summary: The bottom of the bear market is not far off, but the market is still in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, currently in the fifth wave of weekly-level downward movement to test the bottom.