星球日报
星球日报|7月 20, 2026 08:28
[Bitcoin Options Implied Volatility Drops to Low Levels, Analysts Suggest Potential for Significant Fluctuations] Odaily Planet Daily News: Murphy stated that the implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options is currently extremely low, with 1-week IV at 33% and 1-month IV at 34%, both below the historical range of 40%, potentially signaling significant market fluctuations. According to Murphy's analysis, similar situations have occurred twice in the past year: - In early January, IV dropped below 40%, and within 15 days, BTC fell from $97,000 to $62,000. - At the end of April, IV dropped below 40%, and within 14 days, BTC fell from $82,000 to $60,000. - After June 15, BTC dropped from $66,000 to $58,000. Murphy pointed out that low IV aligns with market consensus, the accumulation of volatility arbitrage funds, and the short gamma mechanism employed by market makers, which could amplify the impact of unexpected events. He advised contract traders to be prepared.
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