A few days ago, HYPE dropped around $58 Many people may have started waiting for 50 or even 40 HYPE again It's understandable, after all, the market did see a significant potential supply this time About 600000 HYPEs were transferred from protocol related addresses on the chain, followed by an increase of about 160000. Calculated at around $60, about 760000 HYPEs are close to $45 million About 275000 of them went to addresses marked as Hyperliquid, while the rest flowed to unmarked addresses and exchange associated addresses Transferring to the exchange's affiliated address does not mean that it has been sold But when the price has already weakened, this transfer is enough for the market to push the 'potential selling pressure' into the price first So HYPE fell about 13% in a week, while the market only fell about 2% during the same period. OI has also dropped from a high level to about 2 billion US dollars, a decrease of about 10%; About $8.5 million in liquidation, 98% are long positions This indicates that the previous group of high leverage chasing has been fiercely eliminated for a round But don't rush to understand this as' the bulls have cleared, so there must be a rebound ' The decline in OI may also be just a temporary withdrawal of funds from the table, and the market is temporarily unwilling to continue to leverage HYPE And AF's last repurchase was about 108 hours ago This is also what people in their 50s and 40s are most concerned about: If the newly added chips really enter the market, but the repurchase rhythm is temporarily interrupted, the price can of course continue to decline to find liquidity However, the other side of HYPE is also worth analyzing carefully According to on chain data statistics, AF has actually repurchased about 612700 HYPEs in the past 30 days, with an average of about 20400 per day; The average buying price in the past 7 days is about $66.52 From the perspective of traceable repurchase, AF has cumulatively purchased approximately 24.59 million HYPEs, with an average cost of approximately $39.40 and a cumulative investment of approximately $969 million Based on the price of $60.53 in the chart, the current value of these chips is approximately $1.49 billion, with a floating profit of approximately $520 million On an annualized basis, AF repurchases approximately $507 million, corresponding to a market value repurchase rate of approximately 2.6% This is not the bottom But this means that if HYPE really drops to 50, the same amount of revenue from the agreement can take away about 21% more HYPE from the market Looking at the trading platform again Hyperliquid's monthly perpetual trading volume has reached approximately 16.5% of Binance's, once again setting a new high This set of data is very important Because the money for repurchases does not come out of thin air, it comes from trading volume and transaction fees If HYPE continues to decline while Hyperliquid's trading share continues to grow, then AF's ability to repurchase has not disappeared along with the price On the other hand, if the trading share also drops, repurchases continue to stop, and new chips continue to flow into the exchange, 50 may not necessarily be the end point There are still two lines in the ecosystem that are increasing the complexity of HYPE The first one is HyperLend Its Q2 data is still growing, but currently HYPE and liquidity pledged assets still make up the majority of its collateral. Can HyperLend truly transform pledge demands into lending demands and bring institutional assets in, determining whether it is a new narrative or just circulating within HYPE The second one is Hypurrs The community is discussing how Hyperliquid still has about 43% of HYPE supply space and the potential ecological demand if a very small portion flows to Hypurrs in the future This is not a buying order that has already occurred, let alone a price model But it shows that the market not only sees HYPE as a perpetual exchange fee note, but more and more people are starting to bet that it can also grow into a lending platform in the future NFT、 Institutional assets and more user entrances. So now those waiting for 50 are not waiting for a number You are waiting for four things to happen simultaneously: This batch of transfers eventually turned into actual sales; AF repurchase continues to be absent; Hyperliquid's trading share is starting to decline; The new ecological demand has not been connected. As long as a few of them don't happen, 50 may be another price that everyone can see, but not necessarily wait for But if the supply really exceeds the repurchase, 40 should not be considered impossible The market has started to react gradually, and on chain funds will speak for the price HYPE Hyperliquid