小龙先生
小龙先生|7月 20, 2026 02:55
Short term long entry trading strategy for Bitcoin The current price is 64923, and the key position in the trading volume is 65000-65108. Option 1: Increase volume on Monday to break through and chase after the majority (with a probability of 40%) If the first 4H trading volume (>5000) reaches 65200 on Monday, follow up and go long. Entry conditions: Volume 4H (volume>5000)+Physical>300 points. The bullish line closes above 65200 Entry price: 65200 Stop loss: 64500 (falling below the lower edge of the weekend sideways zone) First goal: 65600 (high before 7/15) Second objective: 66150 (0.236) Risk: 700 points Profit loss ratio: 1:0.6 → 1:1.4 Position: Existing position+3-5% additional position Suitable scenario: Strong on Monday without giving a chance for a pullback. The disadvantage is that the profit and loss ratio is average. Option 2: Step back on 63500-63800 to take the majority (probability 35%, recommended) If it rises by 65000-65200 on Monday and then falls back, it will continue to rise at 63500-63800 (around 0.382). Entry conditions: Price retraces to around 0.382 (63779)+signal of bottoming out/hammer line to stop falling Admission range: 63500-63800 Stop loss: 63100 (below the integer level of 63000) First objective: 65000 Second objective: 65600 (front height) Risk: 600-700 points Profit and loss ratio: 1:2.0 → 1:2.8 Position: Existing base position+additional position 5-8% Suitable scenario: After breaking through on Monday holiday, step back to confirm support before going up. Excellent profit and loss ratio, and in line with the principle of "equal signal" in three-dimensional integration. Option 3: Wait for a second dip to 62500 to buy more (probability 25%, main position) If the rebound is blocked and falls back after reaching 65000-65600, the second bottom will be around 0.5 (62625). Entry conditions: Price returns to around 0.5 (62625)+bottom long start signal appears (hammer line+contraction+support level) Admission range: 62300-62700 Stop loss: 61800 (falling below the 0.5 zone) First objective: 64500 Second objective: 66000 Risk: 600-700 points Profit and loss ratio: 1:2.8 → 1:5.0 Position: Main position 8-10% Suitable scenario: After rebounding to 65000+, it is blocked and falls back, giving a second chance to get on the car. The profit to loss ratio is optimal, but it may take 1-2 weeks. Comprehensive suggestion: Priority: Plan 1 (breakthrough to chase long positions, bottom position+3-5%), Plan 2 (retracement to buy long positions, bottom position+5-8%), Plan 3 (secondary bottom to buy long positions, main position 8-10%) The core principles of the three plans are: Option one requires a large volume (>5000) to be credible, and no breakthrough will be pursued without quantity; Option 2 requires a stop signal (lower shadow line/hammer line) before accepting, do not guess the bottom; Option three requires a bottom long start signal (four elements) before entering, be patient. After Monday's direction is clear, follow the above plan. Don't chase after a sudden rise, don't panic when stepping back, and don't be afraid of a second dip.
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