小龙先生|Jul 20, 2026 02:55
Short term long entry trading strategy for Bitcoin
The current price is 64923, and the key position in the trading volume is 65000-65108.
Option 1: Increase volume on Monday to break through and chase after the majority (with a probability of 40%)
If the first 4H trading volume (>5000) reaches 65200 on Monday, follow up and go long.
Entry conditions: Volume 4H (volume>5000)+Physical>300 points. The bullish line closes above 65200
Entry price: 65200
Stop loss: 64500 (falling below the lower edge of the weekend sideways zone)
First goal: 65600 (high before 7/15)
Second objective: 66150 (0.236)
Risk: 700 points
Profit loss ratio: 1:0.6 → 1:1.4
Position: Existing position+3-5% additional position
Suitable scenario: Strong on Monday without giving a chance for a pullback. The disadvantage is that the profit and loss ratio is average.
Option 2: Step back on 63500-63800 to take the majority (probability 35%, recommended)
If it rises by 65000-65200 on Monday and then falls back, it will continue to rise at 63500-63800 (around 0.382).
Entry conditions: Price retraces to around 0.382 (63779)+signal of bottoming out/hammer line to stop falling
Admission range: 63500-63800
Stop loss: 63100 (below the integer level of 63000)
First objective: 65000
Second objective: 65600 (front height)
Risk: 600-700 points
Profit and loss ratio: 1:2.0 → 1:2.8
Position: Existing base position+additional position 5-8%
Suitable scenario: After breaking through on Monday holiday, step back to confirm support before going up. Excellent profit and loss ratio, and in line with the principle of "equal signal" in three-dimensional integration.
Option 3: Wait for a second dip to 62500 to buy more (probability 25%, main position)
If the rebound is blocked and falls back after reaching 65000-65600, the second bottom will be around 0.5 (62625).
Entry conditions: Price returns to around 0.5 (62625)+bottom long start signal appears (hammer line+contraction+support level)
Admission range: 62300-62700
Stop loss: 61800 (falling below the 0.5 zone)
First objective: 64500
Second objective: 66000
Risk: 600-700 points
Profit and loss ratio: 1:2.8 → 1:5.0
Position: Main position 8-10%
Suitable scenario: After rebounding to 65000+, it is blocked and falls back, giving a second chance to get on the car. The profit to loss ratio is optimal, but it may take 1-2 weeks.
Comprehensive suggestion:
Priority: Plan 1 (breakthrough to chase long positions, bottom position+3-5%), Plan 2 (retracement to buy long positions, bottom position+5-8%), Plan 3 (secondary bottom to buy long positions, main position 8-10%)
The core principles of the three plans are:
Option one requires a large volume (>5000) to be credible, and no breakthrough will be pursued without quantity;
Option 2 requires a stop signal (lower shadow line/hammer line) before accepting, do not guess the bottom;
Option three requires a bottom long start signal (four elements) before entering, be patient.
After Monday's direction is clear, follow the above plan. Don't chase after a sudden rise, don't panic when stepping back, and don't be afraid of a second dip.
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